How can the conclusions of neo-Fisherism be avoided?
Neo-Fisherism emphasises the fact that in the long term, a permanent fall in the nominal interest rate leads to a fall in the inflation rate, if the real interest rate does not respond to monetary policy in the long term because it is linked to real structural characteristics of the economy. To restore inflation in the long term, nominal interest rates should therefore be raised and not cut. If one wants to avoid this disturbing conclusion, there are only two possibilities: Either the fall in nominal interest rate s in the long term leads to a rise in capital intensity, which entails a decline in the marginal productivity of capital, and therefore a long-lasting fall in the real interest rate and not a long-lasting fall in inflation; Or the fall in the nominal interest rates leads to an allocation of savings and credit towards a rather inefficient type of investments and capital, particularly in housing and construction. The development of inefficient forms of capital leads to a fall in the marginal productivity of capital and in real interest rates, and therefore prevents the decline in inflation if nominal interest rates fall. Developments in OECD countries show that these two mechanisms are present, which perhaps will make it possible to avoid neo-Fisherism .