Report
Patrick Artus

How can the ECB's inflation target be changed?

The initial problem is that the very expansionary monetary policy in the euro zone is obviously having a very limited impact on inflation. This shows that : Keeping the current inflation target (below 2%, but close to 2%) and, even more so, moving to an average inflation target (average inflation of 2%, or inflation around 2%) would lead to a perpetually expansionary monetary policy; A reasonable solution is to use a composite inflation target that mixes consumer and asset prices, particularly residential real estate prices. This would allow the central bank to take into account the fact that while the correlation between monetary policy and goods and services prices has disappeared in the euro zone, the correlation between monetary policy and asset prices seems to be strong, and that asset price bubbles must be prevented. Interestingly enough, research 1 shows that central bank research finds much greater impacts of monetary policy on growth and inflation than any other academic research, which shows that central banks are embarrassed by having to accept the idea that monetary policy has no impact on inflation. 1 B. Fabo , M. Jančoková , E. Kempf , L. Pástor , "Fifty Shades of QE: Conflicts of Interest in Economic Research", NBER Working paper no. 27849, October 202 0 .
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

Other Reports from Natixis

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Get in touch