How can we calculate potential growth while complying with the climate objectives?
Potential growth is generally calculated by assuming that production requires only capital and labour. But production currently requires fossil energies, and therefore leads to CO 2 emissions. If there are continuous CO 2 emissions, how should we calculate potential growth? We show that for the world as a whole: Potential growth, if we take into account only capital and labour , is 2 . 3 to 2 . 5% per year; Potential growth, if CO 2 emissions are limited to the level compatible with a 2°C rise in global temperature, is: 2.1% per year if capital is substitutable for fossil energies (it is possible to invest to reduce fossil energy consumption); 1 ,0 % per year if capital is complementary to fossil energies (the current production technology is used). We see that, if one invests to reduce fossil energy consumption (capital substitutable for fossil energy consumption) one loses only 0.4 percentage point of potential growth per year; if one keeps the current production technology (capital complementary to consumption of fossil energy), one loses 1 . 5 pp of potential growth per year.