Report
Patrick Artus

How could some economic policy leeway be restored in France and Italy?

There is very little economic policy leeway in France and Italy, given: The European budget rules and the fact that their unemployment rates are close to their structural unemployment rates; The fact that wages have grown faster than productivity; Weak cost competitiveness given the ir product sophistication. Could France and Italy possibly regain some economic policy leeway? Running fiscal deficits above the level that ensures fiscal solvency would force them to conduct a restrictive fiscal policy in the future, which would only be acceptable in the unlikely event that growth w ere much higher in the future; Increasing wages more rapidly would reduce corporate profitability, when France and Italy are the two OECD countries where profitability is insufficient to finance investment; Wage increases would also lead to even larger market share losses than at present. We must be honest: there is little leeway in the short term. Longer term, some leeway wi ll return if: Some inefficient public spending (corporate subsidies, etc.) is reduced; Productivity picks up ( for example on the back of an upturn in skills) and increases potential GDP and tax revenues.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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