Report
Patrick Artus

How could the German recession create problems for the United States?

A German recession is having a weak direct effect (via foreign trade) on the United States. But it may have a very negative indirect effect on the United States via the following mechanism: The German recession leads to a more expansionary fiscal policy in Germany and in the rest of the euro zone; This eliminates the euro zone's external surplus; However, this surplus was to a large extent lent to the US Treasury, as since 2013-2014 the euro zone has replaced China as the main lender to the United States; the disappearance of the euro zone’s surplus would therefore lead to a major problem in financing the US external and fiscal deficit s .
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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