Report
Patrick Artus

How did the world lose potential growth by having more savings?

Two seemingly incompatible developments have been seen over the past 20 years: The rise in the global savings rate, and therefore, at equilibrium, in the global investment rate; the increase in the fiscal deficit has only partially used the rise in the private savings rate; The decline in potential growth due to the slowdown in productivity gains. How can this contradiction be explained? Possible explanations are as follows: There has been a rise in the global gross savings rate and gross investment rate, while net capital has slowed: there has therefore been a sharp increase in capital consumption and capital obsolescence; A large part of global savings has been channelled to the United States, a country with very high per capita capital and income, which is therefore an inefficient use of savings; If savings are abundant, there is a lot of investment at equilibrium, and inefficient investments are made (which is consistent with the fall in real interest rates), leading to a decline in productivity gains.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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