Report
Patrick Artus

How far can the loss of income be postponed?

The nature of the loss of GDP (income) caused by the COVID crisis in 2020 will change several times, depending on the economic policies implemented: If the very expansionary fiscal policies had not been implemented, households and companies would have lost income in 2020; With the expansionary fiscal policies, but without monetary support, government debt would have had to be reduced later, and households and companies would have lost income later (the loss of income would be smoothed over time); With the monetary support of fiscal deficits (monetisation of deficits), the loss of income is due to the loss in the value of money, not so much for purchases of goods and services, but much more for purchases of financial and real estate assets (in this case, there will therefore be asset price bubbles); But we can take the analysis a step further: if asset price bubbles are prevented by macroprudential policies, the loss of income will be reflected in the cost of macroprudential policies: credit constraints, taxation of capital gains, etc.
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Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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