Report
Patrick Artus

How fast does the level of GDP (the output gap) return to normal after a recession?

We examine the pace at which the output gap (the shortfall in the level of GDP relative to the level of potential GDP) has narrowed after recessions in the United States and the euro zone in the past. We want to know what enables the level of GDP to return to normal faster in the United States, as this may then serve as a lesson for after the coronavirus crisis. The euro zone’s output gap (underemployment) is late to correct because : Fiscal policy becomes restrictive too soon in the euro zone; Monetary policy is late to become expansionary in the euro zone; Companies have difficulty raising finance in the euro zone .
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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