Report
Patrick Artus

How has France been able to avoid modernising its economy so far?

France is still now characterised by weak innovation and corporate modernisation and a low level of labour force skills. How has it been able to weather this lack of modernisation of its economy so far ? By offsetting the small increases in real wages caused by low labour productivity by using fiscal deficits, by increasing spending on welfare transfers; By offsetting the decline in manufacturing employment by job creation in low-end services; By offsetting the deterioration in foreign trade in industrial products by a foreign trade surplus in services, for example tourism , and by accumulating external debt. These "strategies" to offset the insufficient modernisation of the French economy cannot be extended indefinitely , even though they are still being used now . There is a limit to the public debt, to the fall in the level of sophistication of jobs, and to the external debt. In France, there will therefore either be a rapid modernisation of the economy or impoverishment since these "strategies" can no longer be used, and since there will therefore be a weakening of purchasing power, job losses and a need to balance foreign trade, and therefore a contraction in domestic demand.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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