Report
Patrick Artus

How has Germany reduced its public debt ratio?

A comparison between Germany and the other euro-zone countries reveals a very different public debt ratio dynamics in Germany, where the public debt ratio has fallen quite rapidly since 2013. We try to understand how Germany, unlike the other euro-zone countries, has succeeded in reducing its public debt ratio : By running a large primary fiscal surplus, thanks to either public spending cuts (which areas of public spending?) or an increase in the tax burden ? I t is also important to look into the causes of this primary fiscal surplus. We see an increase in the tax burden and a low level of social welfare spending, facilitated by the decline in unemployment; Thanks to higher nominal growth (real growth and inflation), which gradually reduces the public debt ratio? No; Thanks to lower interest rates than the other euro-zone countries? Yes. This led to a sharp fall in the interest paid on the public debt. Has Germany’s debt ratio fallen as a result of strategic choices ( rejection of fiscal deficits) or due to the country’s economic situation (interest rates, unemployment)? We see that both factors have played a role, but abov e all the desire to return to fiscal surpluses.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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