Report
Patrick Artus

How has Japan avoided a financial crisis?

Japan has long been implementing modern monetary theory: constant fiscal deficits, a sharply rising public debt ratio and an ultra-expansionary monetary policy including fiscal deficit monetisation, keeping long-term interest rates at zero. Why has this policy not brought about a financial crisis in Japan? There have been no capital outflows causing a depreciation of the exchange rate and no asset price bubbles despite the extremely rapid growth in the money supply and in the size of the central bank’s balance sheet. The explanation is simple: the lion’s share of the money creation has been kept in the form of cash, both by banks and non-bank economic agents, without any significant attempt to try to convert this cash into other currencies or other financial and real estate assets. If demand for money increases as much as the money supply, then very rapid money creation does not lead to a financial crisis.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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