Report
Patrick Artus

How high would long-term interest rates be today in Germany, France, Spain and Italy if the ECB’s monetary policy was “normal”?

We assume that monetary policy in the euro zone were “normal” (based on past standards) and estimate hypothetical current levels for : The ECB’s key interest rates; Germany’s 10-year interest rate; The sovereign yield spreads of France, Spain and Italy, given their public debt ratios. In a “normal” situation, 10-year interest rates would be: 2.2% in Germany; 3.8% in France; 3.8% in Spain; 5.1% in Italy . This would pose a fiscal solvency problem.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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