How high would long-term interest rates be without the central banks’ intervention?

Long-term interest rates normally depend on short-term interest rates, expected inflation, risk aversion, fiscal deficits and public debt. We look at how high long-term interest rates would be today in the United States and the euro zone had their central banks not intervened by buying bonds. They would be: 1.8% and not 0.7% in the United States; 2.6% and not -0.1% in the euro zone, where the fiscal deficit normally has a significant effect on the average long-term interest rate.