How is it possible to prevent all shocks from leading to a crisis in emerging countries?
We have seen that all shocks can lead to a crisis in emerging countries. This was the case: At the time of the subprime crisis (2008-2009); After the announcement of the exit from quantitative easing in the United States (2013 to 2016); As a result of the global industrial recession (2018-2019); As a result of the coronavirus crisis. The crisis mechanism is always the same: whether risk aversion rises, growth declines or interest rates rise in OECD countries, there are massive capital outflows and the exchange rate depreciates sharply in emerging countries, leading to a balance of payments crisis and a loss of activity due to the deterioration in these countries’ terms of trade. The solution is well known: introducing capital controls in emerging countries, which discriminate between long-term capital flows and unstable short-term capital flows .