Report
Patrick Artus

How is it possible to prevent all shocks from leading to a crisis in emerging countries?

We have seen that all shocks can lead to a crisis in emerging countries. This was the case: At the time of the subprime crisis (2008-2009); After the announcement of the exit from quantitative easing in the United States (2013 to 2016); As a result of the global industrial recession (2018-2019); As a result of the coronavirus crisis. The crisis mechanism is always the same: whether risk aversion rises, growth declines or interest rates rise in OECD countries, there are massive capital outflows and the exchange rate depreciates sharply in emerging countries, leading to a balance of payments crisis and a loss of activity due to the deterioration in these countries’ terms of trade. The solution is well known: introducing capital controls in emerging countries, which discriminate between long-term capital flows and unstable short-term capital flows .
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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