How long will the credit crunch last in the United States and the euro zone?
In both the United States and the euro zone, a credit crunch has appeared, with a decline in both corporate and household demand for credit and a decline in the supply of bank credit. This double decline in demand and supply of credit has led to a slowdown in lending and in housing and corporate investment. As a result, as long as the credit crunch lasts, it is likely that investment and demand will be weakened overall, so it is important to determine when this credit crunch situation will end. Looking at the past, we see that it took a few months after the central banks cut their key interest rates for the credit crunch to disappear, both in terms of credit demand and supply . We can therefore assume that the credit crunch will begin to disappear in the United States at the end of the first quarter of 2024 and in the euro zone at the end of 2024.