Report
Patrick Artus

How much economic policy leeway does France have if it remains in the euro and continues to implement the European rules?

Almost all the candidates for France’s April 2022 presidential election want to keep France in the euro and implement the European Union’s rules. How much economic policy leeway does this leave France? Given France’s current competitiveness, there is no room for any policy that increases labour costs in sectors exposed to foreign competition; It is difficult to imagine taxes that diverge from the rest of Europe when it comes to mobile factors of production (skilled labour, capital) or mobile tax bases; France’s energy transition policy must be similar to that of Europe as a whole; The fiscal deficit will have to fall within the European rules; However, there is still significant leeway for economic policies: wage policy for low wages (which are mainly found in services sheltered from foreign competition); education and skills policy; public investment policy where public investment improves the efficiency of the economy; the level of taxes that have no effect on cost competitiveness or the location of activity (VAT, taxation of short-term capital gains).
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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