Report
Patrick Artus

How much further will share prices and real estate prices rise in the event of a full portfolio rebalancing?

We look at the United States and the euro zone. In both regions, the quantity of money held by economic agents has risen sharply due to the combined effect of the expansionary monetary policies and the forced savings accumulated during lockdown. In the event of a full portfolio rebalancing, the share of cash in wealth would fall back to its previous level. This implies that wealth must grow at the same rate as the quantity of money and, if the number of other assets (bonds, equities, housing ) is stable in the short term , that the prices of these other assets must grow at the same rate as the quantity of money . The case of bonds is specific, as the stock of public debt (the number of bonds) has risen considerably. Portfolio rebalancing would then lead to: Further growth in equity market indices of 8% in the United States and 17% in the euro zone; Further growth in residential real estate prices of 20% in the United States and 5% in the euro zone.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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