Report

How much of the disinflation is due to restrictive monetary policies?

We are looking at the period 2021-2023 for the United States and the euro zone. The disinflation observed since June 2022 in the United States and since October 2022 in the euro zone may be due to: Falling energy and food prices; Indexation of wages to lower inflation; Restrictive monetary policy. We try to estimate the effect of restrictive monetary policy on inflation by analysing the part of disinflation not due to energy and food prices and wage indexation. We find that restrictive monetary policy: Did not reduce inflation in the United States; Reduced inflation in the euro zone by 2.2 percentage points between October 2022 and December 2023. Admittedly, the rise in interest rates has led to a fall in domestic demand, particularly household housing investment. But it has not led to a rise in the unemployment rate, which may explain why its effect on inflation is zero in the United States and low in the euro zone.
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Natixis
Natixis

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