Report
Patrick Artus

How perverse public debt dynamics have been averted

The perverse public debt dynamics were clearly in evidence after the subprime crisis in Greece and in other euro-zone countries. The rise in the public debt ratio required a restrictive fiscal policy to try to restore fiscal solvency, but the restrictive fiscal policy led to a fall in activity which worsened public finances. Ultimately, fiscal solvency was not restored at all and the economy slipped back into recession. Why are these dynamics not appear ing today ? First, because the expansionary monetary policy is keeping long-term interest rates (sovereign risk premia) very low despite rising public debt ratios; Second, because fiscal solvency does not need to be restored thanks to the ECB’s purchases of the government bonds issued. There is no longer a vicious circle of public debt in the euro zone, at the cost of a loss of monetary policy control.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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