How should asset allocation be approached in 2020?
We believe asset allocation for 20 20 in the United States and the euro zone should be approached in two steps. In terms of absolute value, we believe it is likely that the economic situation will improve (thanks to the boost to demand provided by stimulatory economic polic ies , the end to the “recessionary mini-cycle†in industry in 2019, and the fact that interest rates are going to remain very low). This is conducive to continued growth in the prices of all assets, in light of their very high fundamental values (the interest rate plus the risk premium is lower than the growth rate, a situation in which fundamental values theoretically tend towards infinity) and continued strong borrower solvency (except for High Yield, which is still in the normal situation where the interest rate plus the risk premium is higher than the growth rate). In terms of relative value, it seems clear that European equities are cheap relative to other asset classes.