How should inflation be analysed?
To know whether or not an inflationary shock is lasting and dangerous, and whether or not it should be fought by a restrictive monetary policy, we must ask a few questions: Is inflation due to abnormally strong growth in demand (excessive fiscal deficits, a significant fall in the household savings rate associated with debt) or a shortfall in supply for a normal level of demand? In the second case, it is normally necessary to accept increases in the relative prices of the goods and services in question to rebalance supply and demand; What is the degree of wage indexation to prices? If it is high, inflation shocks may turn into permanent inflation and lead to a decline in corporate earnings; if it is low, inflation shocks correct quite rapidly as the loss of household purchasing power reduces the demand for goods and services; Is inflation caused by an essential technological change (for example, today's energy transition)? If so, it is unavoidable and there is no point in trying to correct it; Is inflation the result of an increase in corporate profit margins? If this increase is unnecessary, then this form of inflation must be fought, but is monetary policy the right instrument?