Report
Patrick Artus

How to deal with the Italian problem?

Prior to the coronavirus crisis, t he euro zone as a whole had no fiscal solvency problem . B ut the situation was different in Italy, given : Potential growth that was zero in real terms and very low in nominal terms; A very high public debt ratio ; this will be the case even more so after the coronavirus crisis. If the ECB has to perpetually ensure Italy’s fiscal solvency and prevent another Italian public debt crisis, it will perpetually be constrained in its monetary policy. Is there a solution to this situation? A restructuring of Italy’s public debt? This is impossible, given the effect on Italians’ wealth and on the stability of the euro; An upturn in productivity in Italy? But what would drive it after 25 years of stagnant productivity? Public debt mutualisation in the euro zone ? This is conceivable for the public debt related to the COVID crisis , but not for debt that has finance d structural fiscal deficits linked to the absence of reforms; The requirement of a long period of highly restrictive fiscal policy in Italy? This would definitely trigger a political crisis and be rejected . Both now and after the coronavirus crisis, only the ECB can prevent a debt crisis in Italy . B ut this constraint to its monetary policy will pose a serious problem if it becomes permanent.
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Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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