Report
Patrick Artus

How to make the fight against inflation and the energy transition compatible?

OECD countries currently face: High inflation, which central banks will want to combat; The need to accelerate the energy transition, leading to a significant need for more investment. These two objectives risk being incompatible: energy transition investments are often long-term investments with low financial returns, which are difficult to make if long-term interest rates are high. This has led to suggestions (in the same vein as modern monetary theory or helicopter money theory) to finance these investments at an interest rate of zero, either by creating money or by keeping long-term interest rates at zero despite inflation (as in Japan). But the huge risks associated with this policy are well known: Out-of-control inflation, if monetary policy no longer combats it. It is important to understand that even if money initially finances investments for the energy transition, later it circulates throughout the economy; Asset price bubbles; Sharp depreciation of the exchange rate of the country that pursues this policy if other countries do not pursue it. It is important to understand that the contradiction between the need for investment and rising interest rates cannot be resolved, even through public investment subsidies, as the government will then have to finance them.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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