Report
Patrick Artus

How to prevent growth from stalling in the large euro-zone countries?

On the basis of trend productivity gains and growth in the working-age population, without introducing a rise in the participation rate or immigration, potential growth in the 2020s will be around : 0% per year in Germany 0.4% per year in France -0.4% per year in Italy -0.2% per year in Spain In these four countries, once the unemployment rate nears the structural unemployment rate, growth will therefore become very weak. Given that companies face major hiring difficulties, this situation may be close. How can it be avoided? There is no sign of an upturn in productivity gains, even in Germany where the drive to innovate and modernise capital is much greater than in the other three countries; It remains to be hoped that the participation rate (the share of the working-age population available to the labour market) will continue to rise and that immigration will continue, paving the way for the employment rate to rise even when the unemployment rate is low and stable. An international comparison of participation rates shows that there is significant room for the participation rate to rise in France, Spain and Italy. As for immigration, it now seems to be viewed less and less favourably by public opinion.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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