Report
Patrick Artus

How to think about equity investments?

We are not looking at the sectoral aspects of equity investment strateg ies in this Flash, but at the overall aspect: what should we look at to determine whether or not we should remain invested in equities? The two key criteria are: Will central banks raise interest rates enough for real interest rates to rise considerably? Currently: Real interest rates are rising sharply in the United States; They are rising, but slowly, and remain negative in the euro zone; Will the indexation of wages to prices recover sufficiently so that corporate earnings are negatively affected and earnings are no longer protected by the low indexation of wages to prices? Currently: Profit margins are rising sharply in the United States; They are stable in the euro zone, but with the prospect of an acceleration in wages. The risk for equity investors is therefore: In the United States, linked to the rise in real interest rates; In the euro zone, linked to the likely acceleration in wages, leading to a decline in profit margins.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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