Report
Patrick Artus

How will OECD countries stabilise (or reduce) public debt ratios?

OECD countries have accumulated a very high public debt ratio due to the COVID crisis. What are the possibilities for reducing public debt levels? We show that there are four possibilities: An increase in the primary fiscal surplus; Keeping interest rates lower than nominal growth; this includes a fall in the average interest rate on the public debt that results from the central bank holding part of the public debt; The inflation tax, which applies to the entire quantity of money (transaction and investment); The fourth possibility is more original: it is growth in the relative price of assets (equities, real estate, etc.), which applies to investment money (the money that is a fraction of wealth). If the relative price of assets rises, demand for investment money increases, which makes it possible to increase the money supply and therefore to increase the monetisation of the public debt. We look at the size of these four mechanisms to reduce the public debt ratio, in the past and probably in the future.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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