How will the “Modern Monetary Theory” experiment turn out?
We look at the situations of the United States and the euro zone. It can be considered that since the start of 2020, these two regions have conducted a Modern Monetary Theory experiment: a fiscal policy that is as expansionary as is deemed necessary, with monetisation of fiscal deficits by central banks. How will this experiment turn out ? The possible consequences are: The traditional crowding-out effect, with long-term interest rates rising as monetary support for fiscal expansion weakens; Inflation, if this policy succeeds in causing renewed pressure on the labour market and the goods and services market; Asset price bubbles, if the excess money creation is not spent, but invested in the various asset classes. We are now seeing: In the United States, a very weak crowding-out effect, no inflation, the start of bubbles in equities and real estate; In the euro zone, neither a crowding-out effect nor inflation, and the start of real estate bubbles. The real danger with the use of Modern Monetary Theory is therefore the appearance of bubbles, especially in real estate.