Report
Patrick Artus

How would the euro zone’s fiscal rules be rewritten today?

The euro zone’s fiscal rules are well known: structural fiscal deficit below 0.5% of GDP (1% of GDP for countries whose public debt ratio is lower than 60%); total fiscal deficit below 3% of GDP; public debt ratio returning to 60% of GDP in no more than 20 years if it is higher than this level. If it could be done , how might we rewrite these rules today? All limits to cyclical fiscal deficits w ould be abolished: governments must have free rein in the event of a recession and crisis; Even though difficult to do, a distinction would be drawn between current public spending and public spending that truly generates growth and productivity; there is no reason to forbid the latter from being financed by public debt; A distinction would also be drawn between the public debt that is held by the ECB and that which is not, as the former has no effect on government solvency; it only makes sense to limit the latter; Irreversible monetisation of cyclical fiscal deficits would be permitted in order to enable highly expansionary fiscal policies during crises; monetisation of structural fiscal deficits would be forbidden so as to avoid the moral hazard created by monetisation with respect to fiscal policy.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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