Report
Patrick Artus

If another public health shock shuts down the economy, the problem will be the acceptability of money

It is possible that a nother public health shock (Omicron variant of COVID, or another variant later) will lead governments to take protective measures that shut down parts of the economy, like in 2020. There is no doubt that governments would implement highly expansionary fiscal policies to protect households and companies, like they did in 2020-2021. It is also clear that fiscal deficits would have to be financed again through money creation to avoid crowding-out effects (a sharp rise in long-term interest rates). But for this to be possible, the additional money supply must be met with demand, as was the case in 2020-2021. But there could be a money acceptability crisis in the event of a further huge increase in the money supply: economic agents may refuse to hold more money and get rid of it in favour of other assets (real assets, private currencies, etc.). It is the acceptability of money that will determine the ability of governments and central banks to respond to a nother public health crisis.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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