Report
If Chinese imports remain as low as they are today, and if the United States switches to a highly protectionist trade policy, how will the European economy evolve?
We have two hypotheses: Chinese imports continue to grow at a low (negative) rate due to weak domestic demand; US imports are negatively affected by a protectionist policy implemented after the election of the new president in the event of a Donald Trump victory. What impact would this have on Europe? Population ageing and rising savings are generating weak domestic demand in the euro zone; if euro-zone exports to China and the United States stagnate or fall, euro-zone growth will become very weak, and European companies will have no choice but to invest in the United States.
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Natixis
Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.
Patrick Artus
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