If Chinese imports remain as low as they are today, and if the United States switches to a highly protectionist trade policy, how will the European economy evolve?
We have two hypotheses: Chinese imports continue to grow at a low (negative) rate due to weak domestic demand; US imports are negatively affected by a protectionist policy implemented after the election of the new president in the event of a Donald Trump victory. What impact would this have on Europe? Population ageing and rising savings are generating weak domestic demand in the euro zone; if euro-zone exports to China and the United States stagnate or fall, euro-zone growth will become very weak, and European companies will have no choice but to invest in the United States.