Natixis - If nothing more is imported from Russia, inflation in OECD countries will be the level needed to bring demand down sufficiently

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Natixis

Patrick Artus

If nothing more is imported from Russia, inflation in OECD countries will be the level needed to bring demand down sufficiently

We will look at a hypothetical scenario where nothing (energy, metals, agricultural products, etc.) is imported from Russia any more. What will then determine inflation in OECD countries? It will simply be the inflation needed for demand to decline so much that nothing needs to be imported from Russia. The orders of magnitude are then as follows: with the assumptions we describe in this Flash , the additional inflation in OECD countries needed to reduce GDP so as to be able to stop imports from Russia is 10.5 percentage points.

22/03/2022 1 EN

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Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

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Analysts

Patrick Artus

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If nothing more is imported from Russia, inflation in OECD countries will be the level needed to bring demand down sufficiently

Fine-tuning our Fed Call: No need to skip October

Labor market treads water in a choppy sea

Euro area April flash inflation: core inflation unexpectedly rose in April

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