If there is both a decline in purchasing power and precautionary savings, then a recession is possible; but strong indexation of wages to prices is also dangerous

We believe that the countries currently at risk of recession are those where there is: A decline in household purchasing power (wages increasing less rapidly than prices, without the gap being offset by public aid); And, at the same time, precautionary savings, i.e. the loss of purchasing power is not offset by a fall in the household savings rate. Among the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Spain, Italy and Japan, this configuration can be seen today in Germany and Japan. But later, countries where wages follow inflation (United States, United Kingdom, Italy) may also be affected by the decline in corporate investment caused by the decline in profit margins.