If there were another crisis today, would it be worse than the one ten years ago?
Our scenario for OECD countries is a “soft landing†and not a crisis like in 2008-2009. But i f there were a crisis today, would it be more or less severe than ten years ago? In OECD countries, the public debt ratio is higher than ten years ago ; the private debt ratio is lower but the total debt ratio is higher . B ut the long period of low interes t rates has sharply reduced the cost of debt and improved borrower solvency; Asset prices relative to goods prices are lower than ten years ago, which reduces the risk of a serious crisis caused by a wealth loss; But, on the other hand, there is significantly less countercyclical economic policy leeway than ten years ago.