Report
Patrick Artus

Important to draw a distinction between the two types of indebted emerging countries

We should not confuse the two types of indebted emerging countries: Those that have a high savings rate, and where the indebtedness is explained by the fact that significant savings are lent to economic agents that borrow in the same country; if savings are high and are hardly lent to the rest of the world, it will inevitably at equilibrium lead to a high debt ratio for the country, but this is not dangerous since the indebtedness reflects the country's abundant savings (examples: China, South Korea); Those where the debt to a significant extent stems from the country's external debt as domestic savings are insufficient to finance investment and a chronic external deficit. The indebtedness is then dangerous, since, as it is external, it may lead to balance of payments and currency crises (examples: Brazil, Turkey, South Africa, India).
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Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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