Report
Patrick Artus

In reality, the ECB would like the entire burden of the inflationary shock to be borne by wage earners

The ECB expects inflation in the euro zone to fall to 2.1% by 2024, so it is not moving to a really restrictive monetary policy at present. But it is important to note that the ECB expects wage growth of 4.2% in 2022 and 4.3% in 2023, i.e. the same as in 2021 (and, moreover, high productivity gains). We then understand its scenario: the burden of the inflationary shock (rising prices of energy, commodities, transport, etc.) is entirely borne by wage earners in 2022 and 2023. As a result, companies do not need to increase their prices more quickly. But there is concern that the ECB is confusing the normative (what it would like to do to avoid inflation: no compensation for price increases for wage earners and no indexation of wages to prices) with the positive (what will probably happen: wage increases in the euro zone in 2023 will be significantly higher than in 2022).
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Get in touch