Report
Patrick Artus

In recent periods, all significant exchange rate depreciations have been negative for the countries that conducted them

In Japan after 2013, in China after 2014 and in the United Kingdom after 2016, the steep depreciation of the exchange rate has caused a marked decline in growth. The reason is that the gain in terms of exports and for the industrial sector is more than counterbalanced by the losses for the rest of the economy due to the rise in import prices. If a depreciation of the exchange rate reduces growth, the current debate on the currency war and the United States’ claim that China and the euro zone are manipulating their currencies to weaken them are extremely strange: why would a country want to weaken its exchange rate if this reduces its growth? Either the countries’ leaders do not believe that exchange rate depreciation reduces growth; Or they are focused on industry and not on the rest of the economy.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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