In the eurozone, recovery may have to wait

This week has seen some significant developments. PMI figures for the eurozone were generally disappointing, signalling a real deterioration in the economy at the start of the summer. These data point to a possible repricing of ECB rate cut expectations in the days ahead, especially if inflation continues to show signs of moderating. At the same time, US retail sales were significantly below expectations, underscoring the fragility of the US consumer and suggesting that inflationary pressures may be easing. On the French political front, the week was relatively quiet with a successful auction by AFT, slightly widening the OAT-Bund spread, which could have been more impacted by France’s entry into excessive deficit proceedings. As for the central banks, after the Fed’s status quo, the BoE left its rates unchanged. On the other hand, the SNB surprised everyone by announcing a second rate cut. We have just published out Midyear Outlook , as well as the results of our   Investor survey - H2 2024 .