In the recent period, stock market indices have been correlated only with long-term interest rates; economic and geopolitical risks no longer have any effect on these indices
Since 2019, stock market indices (we look at the United States and the euro zone) have been correlated only with long-term interest rates. There is no longer any correlation with economic risk (the risk of recession) or geopolitical risk. This situation is fragile, because: Economic risk, particularly in the euro zone, and geopolitical risk are high; Long-term interest rates are now abnormally low, given the inflation outlook and the massive need for investment.