Report
Patrick Artus

Increasing threat that the equilibrium will be upset in the euro zone and the OECD

Since the creation of the euro, the economic equilibrium of euro-zone and OECD countries has been characterised by: Small increases in wages and production costs, leading to low inflation; The use of credit and then fiscal deficits to offset the resulting weakness of household demand; The ability to have high public and private debt ratios thanks to the very low interest rates made possible by low inflation. But the COVID crisis threatens to upset this equilibrium: First, as a result of demands for higher wages and of higher production costs due to the new health standards, which may lead to higher inflation; Second, as a result of the very sharp rise in corporate and public debt ratios due to the response to the crisis. The upset may then come from the rise in interest rates that would result from higher inflation in a context of even higher debt ratios. We seek to determine whether it will be possible to avoid a debt crisis at that time.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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