Report
India’s strong growth is largely due to the rural exodus, which began in the early 2000s and is boosting the urban population working in the market sector
The growth in India's working-age population (1.1% a year in 2023) and in labour productivity (4 to 4.5% a year on average) cannot account for the entire growth in GDP (7.7% in 2023, 6.9% forecast for 2024). Growth in GDP is much higher than the sum of growth in labour productivity and growth in the working-age population, due to the emergence in India of a mechanism that was not previously present: the rural exodus, which is boosting the urban population working in the market sector (which is growing by 2% a year). Growth in India will therefore be strong for the same reason that growth in China was strong from 2002 to 2018.
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Natixis
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Patrick Artus
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