Report
Inflation is no longer cyclical in OECD countries for two reasons, and the second one should not be overlooked
Inflation and core inflation in OECD countries have not been cyclical in the recent period, before the coronavirus crisis, for two reasons: One is often discussed: the correlation between the economic cycle and growth in unit labour costs has become low or even zero, because of the new functioning of labour markets; The other is often forgotten: the correlation between the economic cycle and the oil price has disappeared, due to the surge in oil production in the United States, which affects inflation but also core inflation due to second-round effects.
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Natixis
Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.
Patrick Artus
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