Is a banking crisis more severe when banks’ return on equity is higher before the crisis?
We look at OECD countries and compare: The level of banks’ ROE (return on equity) before the 2008 crisis; The magnitude of the banking crisis (which can be measured by the rise in bank CDS, the fall in bank earnings, and the slump in banks’ share prices). We can imagine that a high bank ROE shows that banks: Have little capital, Have chosen a high risk level, which leads to a more severe banking crisis. We see, on the contrary, that the countries where banks’ ROE was the highest before the 2008 crisis did not have a more severe banking crisis than the other countries. T his explanation of banks’ excess profitability before the crisis is therefore not correct.