Is a restrictive fiscal policy a prelude to a more expansionary monetary policy?
Today, it is often argued that euro-zone fiscal policy will become more restrictive, since the new fiscal rules require reducing the fiscal deficit and the public debt ratio, and that, as a result, euro-zone monetary policy will become less restrictive. This argument is correct, unless we are in a context of Ricardian neutrality. If there is Ricardian neutrality, a high fiscal deficit leads to a rise in the private sector savings rate (in anticipation of a subsequent correction of this deficit). A reduction in the fiscal deficit drives down the private sector savings rate and, as a result, has no effect on growth or inflation and therefore does not allow a switch to a less restrictive monetary policy.