Report
Patrick Artus

Is a restrictive fiscal policy a prelude to a more expansionary monetary policy?

Today, it is often argued that euro-zone fiscal policy will become more restrictive, since the new fiscal rules require reducing the fiscal deficit and the public debt ratio, and that, as a result, euro-zone monetary policy will become less restrictive. This argument is correct, unless we are in a context of Ricardian neutrality. If there is Ricardian neutrality, a high fiscal deficit leads to a rise in the private sector savings rate (in anticipation of a subsequent correction of this deficit). A reduction in the fiscal deficit drives down the private sector savings rate and, as a result, has no effect on growth or inflation and therefore does not allow a switch to a less restrictive monetary policy.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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