Report
Patrick Artus

Is another financial crisis on the cards?

Financial crises occur following a period during which three types of imbalances combine: Macroeconomic imbalances (abnormally low interest rates, excessive lending); Regulatory imbalances (tolerance of overly risky financial products, poor quality of information on these financial products, excessive financial market liberalisation); Behavioural imbalances ( emergence of unfounded beliefs that become consensual). Are these three types of imbalance present today? If so, then fears of another financial crisis would be well-founded. Macroeconomic imbalances are certainly present, given the abnormally low level of interest rates maintained by central banks and the extreme abundance of liquidity; Regulations for banks, insurers, pension funds and financial markets are very stringent. And yet we see that the risk premia provided by some financial assets are abnormally low relative to their actual risk; There have also been sharp rises in the prices of some financial assets (shares in technology companies, raw materials related to the energy transition, cryptocurrencies) due to the emergence of the belief that the prices of these assets will continue to rise. The three imbalances needed for the next financial crisis to take place are therefore indeed present today.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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