Is average inflation targeting producing the expected results?
The Federal Reserve, explicitly, and the ECB, less explicitly, have switched to average inflation targeting: the 2% inflation target is to be met over a long period of time. Th e implication is that if inflation has been below target, it must subsequently be above target. Average inflation targeting is equivalent to price level targeting. The shift to average inflation targeting by the central bank is hoped to result in inflation being significantly higher than the target (of 2%) after a recession. The high inflation expected during and immediately after a recession is then supposed to lift actual inflation and help to prevent deflation. Are there signs that the choice of average inflation targeting has changed inflation expectations at the end of the recession in the wake of the COVID crisis? And has a rise in inflation expectations had an effect on actual core inflation, which means it would have had an effect on wages also? Inflation expectations have risen (among financial markets and households) in the United States, but very little in the euro zone; wage s ha ve not accelerated anywhere.