Report
Patrick Artus

Is future growth being sacrificed by the drastic reaction to recessions?

Governments and central banks are reacting increasingly drastically with expansionary fiscal and monetary policies to recessions. But could this drastic reaction subsequently lead to a loss of long-term growth? High public debt is not a problem if fiscal deficits are monetised during recessions; Very rapid growth in the quantity of money creates financial instability that can be negative for growth by creating volatility and uncertainty; Supporting inefficient companies leads to unproductive and inefficient zombie firms and prevents the "Schumpeterian process"; But conversely, preventing bankruptcies limits the loss of productive capital and preventing unemployment limits the loss of human capital. The overall effect of economic policy's drastic reaction to recessions is therefore uncertain. Past observations show that even though the economic policy reaction was more drastic in the United States than in the euro zone after the subprime crisis, it did not prevent a decline in potential growth also in the United States. Perhaps a drastic economic policy reaction has little imp act on potential growth overall.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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