Report
Patrick Artus

Is it certain that Europe will emerge weaker from this crisis than the United States and China?

It is widely claim ed that Europe will emerge weaker from this crisis than the United States and China. But is this certain? In 2020, the euro zone will suffer a larger loss of GDP relative to what was expected than China, but not the United States. But even in China, in reality, the cost of the crisis is huge; unemployment is rising less in the euro zone than in the United States or China; There has been a larger increase in debt in response to the crisis in China and the United States than in the euro zone, which creates increased fragility for the future : the level of debt in China is very high ; the United States is dependent on foreign lenders; The mounting geopolitical tensions between China and the United States are negative for both countries, whereas Europe could benefit from the return to regional value chains; The role of Europe (EU investment fund) has increased and, in many European countries, governments will support the industries of the future and strategic industries: the Europe an economy can be expected to become more sophisticated relative to the United States and China; this will be easily financed by Europe’s excess savings.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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