Report
Patrick Artus

Is it possible that inflation or real interest rates will not rise if there is a very strong fiscal and monetary expansion worldwide?

In 2020 and 2021, both fiscal expansion and monetary expansion are very strong worldwide. There are concerns that this will lead to both higher inflation and higher real interest rates. Is it possible, and under what conditions, for this not to be the case? As long as there is underemployment, inflation will not react and monetary expansion will prevent interest rates from rising; the question of when underemployment will disappear in the future is therefore key; If the underemployment is corrected, to avoid inflation, demand for money must increase as much as the money supply . This is the case if savings are kept in the form of money or if the rise in asset prices increases demand for money. To prevent real interest rates from rising, the private savings rate must rise sharply, either as a reaction to the incipient rise in interest rates or as a reaction to the fiscal deficit.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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