Report
Patrick Artus

Is it possible to do without fiscal rules in the euro zone?

Discussions on the reforms of the European fiscal rules have begun 1 , as it is impossible to continue using the existing rules. In this Flash we are looking at an extreme hypothesis, where there are no more fiscal rules in the euro zone, or where the new rules are so vague that they are not binding. What would happen? It seems clear that many governments would take advantage of this to maintain large public spending and fiscal deficits, given the size of the new needs; This would be positive for euro-zone growth: in reality, under normal conditions, the externalities caused by fiscal deficits are positive, and not negative as some of the analyses at the origin of the fiscal rules have assumed; But this would run the risk of a self-fulfilling debt crisis in the most fragile countries: the pressure on the ECB to prevent a widening of yield spreads between member countries would be permanent and very strong. 1 Ph. Martin, J. Pisani-Ferry, X. Ragot, “Reforming the European Fiscal Framework”, Note from the French Council of Economic Analysis, no. 63, April 2021.
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Natixis
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Analysts
Patrick Artus

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