Is it time to search for yield from local-currency emerging bonds?
As interest rates are very low in OECD countries, investors can be tempted to invest in emerging countries’ bonds in local currency, whose yields are high. But we have to fine-tune this analysis: The lower the national savings rate in an emerging country is, the higher the interest rate is (which is normal given the shortfall in savings), but the more the exchange rate depreciates (given the external deficit which results from the shortfall in savings); The question is then: if, when one invests in an emerging country with a low savings rate, does the additional yield offset s the risk of exchange-rate depreciation. Econometric analysis seems to show that the yield gain outweighs the exchange rate depreciation in the long term.